摘要 为了分析新疆区域影响飞行的航路天气要素及其可预报性,构建航路天气要素预报系统,文章利用2020—2021年收集的话音方式航空器空中报告进行统计分析。结果表明,新疆区域航路天气主要包括颠簸和积冰,其中颠簸主要发生在高层,成因主要为急流;积冰主要发生在中层,成因主要为高空槽,因此可以利用数值预报对颠簸、积冰进行诊断分析。世界区域预报中心提供的WAFS(World Area Forecast System)产品中包括高分辨率的颠簸、积冰诊断结果,文章利用此资料构建新疆区域航路预报系统,可向用户提供由点到面的融合类产品,为区域飞行提供客观、可靠的航路天气参考。
Abstract:In order to analyze the air route weather elements and the predictability in Xinjiang,and to construct an air route weather forecast system,this paper uses the voice-based aircraft air reports collected from 2020 to 2021 for statistical analysis.The results show that the air route weather in Xinjiang mainly includes turbulence and icing.The turbulence mainly occurs in the upper layer and is mainly caused by jet stream.The icing mainly occurs in the middle layer and is mainly caused by the trough aloft.Therefore,the numerical prediction can be used to diagnose and analyze the turbulence and icing.The WAFS (World Area Forecast System) products provided by the World Regional Forecast Center include high-resolution diagnostics of turbulence and icing.Using this data to construct an air route forecast system in Xinjiang can provide point-to-surface blending products for users and provide objective and reliable route weather references for flights.
陈阳权, 杜安妮, 丁旭, 张茜. 新疆区域航路天气要素分析及预报系统构建[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2022, 39(2): 93-95.
Chen Yangquan, Du Anni, Ding Xu, Zhang Qian. Weather elements analysis and forecast system construction of air route in Xinjiang. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2022, 39(2): 93-95.