Abstract:Based on conventional meteorological observation data,operational numerical prediction model and FNL reanalysis data,this paper analyzes a Meiyu front rainstorm process in central Jiangxi Province on July 9,2020 from the aspects of atmospheric circulation background,water vapor conditions,dynamic field and thermal field characteristics.The possible reasons for the large deviation of numerical model forecast in this rainstorm process are given.It is pointed out that the forecast should focus on the adjustment trend of the global model and the forecast of the convective region in the mesoscale regional model,which provides a scientific reference for the forecasters to forecast and correct this kind of heavy rain process.