|
|
|
| Predictability analysis of regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin |
| Yang Xue1,2, Zhang Ming1, Zhang Yujie1,2 , Mao Dan1, Li Xin1 |
1. Suining Meteorological Bureau,Suining 629000;
2. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin,Chengdu 610072 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Based on EC numerical forecast products,high altitude observation and ground automatic weather station data,the predictability of a regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin on July 3,2018 was analyzed from the perspective of short-term weather forecast.The results show that the 24-hour precipitation forecast and upper air situation forecast of EC numerical model are obviously to the west and the mesoscale jet cannot be predicted.The 3-hour precipitation forecast and vertical velocity have obvious lag,and the intensity is significantly weaker.The humidity field and thermal conditions are highly predictable,which is conducive to the adjustment of early warning forecast to the east.
|
|
Received: 20 December 2021
|
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
周春花,孙彧.2018年6－7月四川持续性暴雨的成因分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(1):6-11.
|
| [2] |
高松,陈贵川,吴钲,等.一次西南低涡影响下的川渝地区暴雨个例分析[J].干旱气象,2019,37(4):597-612.
|
| [3] |
周云霞,翟丽萍,何珊珊.2019年“5.27”广西靖西市极端暴雨成因及可预报性分析[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(2):68-74.
|
| [4] |
聂祥,赵春霞,王璇,等.一次弱暴雨天气过程的可预报性分析[J].农业与技术,2021,41(5):93-97.
|
| [5] |
符娇兰,宗志平,代刊,等.一种定量降水预报误差检验技术及其应用[J].气象,2014,40(7):796-805.
|
| [6] |
符娇兰,代刊.基于CRA空间检验技术的西南地区东部强降水EC模式预报误差分析[J].气象,2016,42(12):1456-1464.
|
| [7] |
包慧濛,肖安,李葳,等.南方比湿特征及其与暴雨的关系[J].气象与环境科学,2021,44(2):33-42.
|
|
|
|
2022, Vol. 39 
