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Research on intelligent grid gale forecast in Zhoushan Putuo recreational fishery area |
Cao Yun |
Putuo Meteorological Bureau of Zhoushan,Zhoushan 316000 |
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Abstract The operation of recreational fishing ships in Putuo District relies on weather forecasts,especially the wind,and the wind in the operation area is often much smaller than the forecasted wind along the coast due to topographic reasons such as mountain shading,so it is especially important to carry out refined special forecasts for the recreational fishing operation area.In this paper,through the multi-angle comparison and interpretation of wind data from the smart grid large style point forecasts and the wind data of the recreational fishing areas form 2018-2020.It is found that in terms of wind speed error at each station,the root mean square error is between 2.7~3 m/s and the average absolute error is between 3.7~4 m/s.In terms of wind direction error,the root mean square error is between 55~64 degrees and the average absolute error is between 70~77 degrees.The model forecast was small for Baisha,Dongji and Taohua,and large for Liuheng and Nansha.The OCF model wind speed forecasts were fitted with the measured maximum wind speed values at the representative stations in each region to establish a revised regression equation.The revised forecasts for each region deviated less from the actual values,and the revised results are good.
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Received: 10 March 2023
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