一次梅雨锋特大暴雨过程的预报误差分析

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Abstract Based on conventional meteorological observation data,operational numerical prediction model and FNL reanalysis data,this paper analyzes a Meiyu front rainstorm process in central Jiangxi Province on July 9,2020 from the aspects of atmospheric circulation background,water vapor conditions,dynamic field and thermal field characteristics.The possible reasons for the large deviation of numerical model forecast in this rainstorm process are given.It is pointed out that the forecast should focus on the adjustment trend of the global model and the forecast of the convective region in the mesoscale regional model,which provides a scientific reference for the forecasters to forecast and correct this kind of heavy rain process.

Key words： Meiyu front heavy rainstorm forecast error

Received: 10 March 2023

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P458.3

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	Xiao Wen
	Ling Ting

Cite this article:

Xiao Wen,Ling Ting. Analysis of forecast error of a Meiyu front torrential rain process[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2023, 40(4): 91-94.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2023/V40/I4/91

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