Research on decadal variability of ENSO predictability with Cao method
Liu Yanhui1,Wang Fang2,Zhu Wenchao3,Huang Weixin4
1.Jiangmen Xinhui Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong,Xinhui 529100; 2.Kaiping Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong,Kaiping 529300; 3.Taishan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong,Taishan 529200; 4.Yangjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong,Yangjiang 529000
Abstract:In order to research the relation between decadal variability of ENSO predictability and observation data, a nonlinear time series analysis method is used to probe the certainty extent in different decades. For the sake of the conundrum of measuring the certainty extent in time series, the estimation measure E2 based on Cao method is analysed with some statistics. The results show that Cao method can be used to roughly estimate the extent of certainty and randomicity but it is not precise, because the robustness of Cao method is not strong.The purity of time series data is more important than their length.The decadal change of ENSO predictability is not simply caused by observation data and it is still necessary to thoroughly analyse the reasons.
刘艳辉,王芳,朱文超,黄伟信. 用Cao方法探讨ENSO可预报性的年代际变化[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2013, 30(2): 49-54.
Liu Yanhui,Wang Fang,Zhu Wenchao,Huang Weixin. Research on decadal variability of ENSO predictability with Cao method. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2013, 30(2): 49-54.