两次副高边缘型暴雨过程特征及模式预报偏差检验对比

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Abstract Based on the conventional ground and upper-air observation data and numerical prediction model products such as ECMWF,GRAPES_GFS,NCEP,the process of two subtropical high edge rainstorms are compared and analyzed in 2022.The results show that the 500 hPa height fields of the two torrential rain processes are similar,but the intensity and falling area of the two processes are obviously different.The main reason is the change of the position of the subtropical high and the difference of the position of the westerly trough ridge,low-level water vapor and shear line.The numerical model has certain predictability for large-scale heavy precipitation around the subtropical high,especially GRAPES_ GFS and ECMWF are of great indicative significance to the stability of precipitation in the periphery of the subtropical high,while for the convective precipitation,the precipitation area is relatively accurate,but the indication of the strong precipitation area is poor,and the magnitude of the model forecast is much weaker.The results of the study can provide reference for forecasting rainstorm and verifying the reliability of the model in the future.

Key words： rainstorm heavy precipitation numerical model

Received: 08 February 2023

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Cite this article:

Zhang Dan. Comparison of characteristics and model forecast deviation test of two subtropical high edge-type rainstorm processes[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2023, 40(4): 82-84.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2023/V40/I4/82

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