ECMWF模式在恩施山区强降水预报中的偏差订正方法

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Abstract In order to improve the prediction accuracy of rainstorm,this paper uses the daily precipitation data of 342 regional meteorological stations in Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture,and the forecast data of EC fine grid precipitation,wind field and humidity field to classify and count the impact system types of 49 strong precipitation processes from 2013 to 2021,and analyzes the area rainfall intensity and the deviation of the location of the strong precipitation center.The results show that the impact systems of heavy precipitation in Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture can be divided into three categories:eastward movement of low eddies,southward pressure of cold shear,warm shear of low eddies,and atypical wind fields.Among them,the southward pressure of cold shear and warm shear precipitation systems account for 62% of all heavy precipitation impact systems.A comparative analysis was conducted between the actual and forecast fields of various precipitation systems,and corresponding deviation correction methods were established based on the deviation of surface rainfall intensity and strong center position of various precipitation types.By applying the bias correction method for four heavy precipitation processes in 2022,it was found that although not every process correction could achieve completely ideal results,it could reduce forecast deviation.The correction of surface rainfall intensity forecast and heavy precipitation center location forecast were in line with the laws of meteorology.The research results provide support for improving the level of heavy precipitation forecasting in Enshi mountainous areas.

Key words： ECMWF model Enshi mountain area heavy precipitation deviation correction

Received: 07 February 2024

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	Articles by authors
	Tan Yanli
	Yu Liehui
	Zheng Xiangtian
	Wu Song

Cite this article:

Tan Yanli,Yu Liehui,Zheng Xiangtian等. Deviation correction method of ECMWF model for heavy precipitation forecast in Enshi mountain area[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2024, 41(5): 5-8.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2024/V41/I5/5

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