韶关地区强降水概率分布特征及环流背景分析研究

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Abstract The article analyzed the probability distribution characteristics of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area using the Lepage test method and generalized extreme value distribution,and studied its circulation background.The research results indicate that the trend of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area suddenly changed from decreasing to increasing in 1992.The amount and intensity of heavy precipitation decreased during the pre flood season,and increased significantly during the post flood season.The spatial distribution of the average daily maximum precipitation and rainstorm days from south to north in Shaoguan shows the characteristics of "more in the south and less in the north" in the early flood season and "more in the east and less in the middle" in the later flood season.The circulation background of heavy precipitation is mainly the intensity changes of the Australian high pressure and the Mascarene high pressure.When both high pressures strengthen simultaneously,there is less heavy precipitation in the pre flood season and more heavy precipitation in the post flood season in Shaoguan area.It is hoped that the research results can provide reference value for heavy precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention and reduction work in Shaoguan area.

Key words： Lepage test method generalized extreme value distribution heavy precipitation probability distribution characteristics circulation background

Received: 10 January 2024

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	Huang Shaozhong
	Tang Penghui
	Zhao Liangju
	Jiang Qinghua

Cite this article:

Huang Shaozhong,Tang Penghui,Zhao Liangju等. Analysis study of probability distribution characteristics and circulation background analysis of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2024, 41(5): 75-78.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2024/V41/I5/75

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