基于CMAGRAPES 3 km模式降水的评估与客观方法研究

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (15)

Download: HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract The article uses hourly precipitation data from July to September 2023 in Qinghai to evaluate the precipitation forecast products of the CMAGRAPES 3 km model and conduct research on the interpretation of model products.The results show that the Linear scheme is the best,followed by the Nearest scheme,and the Cubic scheme is the worst among the schemes of grid interpolation to stations.The precipitation forecast of CMAGRAPES 3 km model has a biased feature,and the southern region is significantly larger than the northern region.At the same time,the daily variation characteristics of the deviation show a three peak structure.Remove stations with precipitation ≤0.3 mm hourly from the model precipitation forecast.The objective precipitation forecasting system constructed based on frequency matching method using hourly precipitation data from patterns and actual conditions is conducive to improving the accuracy and TS score of weather forecasts,providing technical support and reference basis for refined forecasting services.

Key words： CMAGRAPES 3 km model deviation accuracy evaluation objective forecasting system

Received: 28 August 2024

ZTFLH:

P458

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	Li Qingping
	Guan Qin

Cite this article:

Li Qingping,Guan Qin. Evaluation and objective method study of precipitation based on CMAGRAPES 3 km model[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2025, 42(5): 1-4.

URL:

http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2025/V42/I5/1

[1]	李泽椿,张玲,钱奇峰,等.中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考 [J].大气科学学报,2020,43(1):1019.
[2]	杜钧,康志明.天气预报中不确定性问题的调查分析 [J].气象科技进展,2014,4(1):5867.
[3]	毕宝贵,代刊,王毅,等.定量降水预报技术进展 [J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):534549.
[4]	谭艳立,虞列辉,郑翔天,等.ECMWF模式在恩施山区强降水预报中的偏差订正方法 [J].气象水文海洋仪器,2024,41(5):58.
[5]	王平,陈文林.ECMWF对广安地区晴雨预报性能检验及订正方法分析 [J].中低纬山地气象,2020,44(4):5558.
[6]	周威,魏庆,杨康权,等.基于频率匹配的EC模式定量降水偏差订正[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2024,41(1):1719,23.
[7]	袁良,谭江红,闫彩霞,等.概率匹配订正法在湖北襄阳地区降水预报中的应用 [J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2024,18(2):9298.
[8]	肖丹,胡超,陈宁,等.基于频率匹配法和最优TS评分法的降水预报订正效果对比 [J].气象与减灾研究,2023,46(4):287295.
[9]	高星星,潘留杰,娄盼星,等.一种改进的频率匹配法在网格降水预报订正中的应用 [J].气象,2023,49(11):13711383.
[10]	赵娟,郭强,王镜,等.基于频率匹配法的西宁地区降水预报订正研究 [J].河南科技,2022,41(21):9398.
[11]	潘留杰,薛春芳,梁绵,等.网格降水预报客观检验订正方法研究进展 [J].气象科技进展,2022,12(3):1524.
[12]	潘留杰,薛春芳,张宏芳,等.基于卡尔曼动态频率的ECMWF降水预报订正 [J].气象,2022,48(1):7383.
[13]	朱科旭,管琴,白爱娟.青海省洪涝灾害时空分布和致灾雨量特征 [J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2024,18(1):8188.
[14]	白爱娟,朱科旭,管琴.青海高原气象地质灾害特征及致灾雨量研究 [J].高原山地气象研究,2021,41(4):119124.
[15]	王江山.青海天气气候[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[16]	沈晓燕,申燕玲,权晨,等.不同方法对青海2020年强降水模式产品预报性能的检验对比 [J].干旱气象,2022,40(2):333343.