金沙县城区气温预报订正研究

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Abstract In order to establish a preliminary temperature forecasting model for the urban area of Jinsha County,this article uses the CMAGEPS from May 2022 to May 2023,ECMWF,grid model temperature forecast products to establish single product correction schemes and multi product integrated correction schemes.The single product correction scheme adopts fixed linear regression,sliding training correction,fixed error under different weather conditions,and optimal sliding period average correction method.The multi product integration correction scheme adopts partial least squares method and ensemble average method.The results indicate that the ECMWF forecast products,which have been corrected by the optimal sliding period average method and different weather fixed error methods,can be used as references for the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature forecasts in the urban area of Jinsha County.However,the ensemble average correction product can be used as a reference for the daily maximum temperature forecast in hightemperature weather and the daily minimum temperature forecast in cold wave weather.The research results provide reference for meteorological service work in Jinsha County.

Key words： temperature forecast linear regression error correction ensemble average

Received: 16 July 2024

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	Articles by authors
	Zhu Jun
	Chen Linqin
	Chen Di
	Wang Ruihan
	Zhang Zongdi

Cite this article:

Zhu Jun,Chen Linqin,Chen Di等. Research on the revision of urban area temperature forecasts in Jinsha County[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2025, 42(5): 54-57.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2025/V42/I5/54

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