Analysis of rainfall characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Maoming
Zhou Jingwen1, Peng Kequan4, Mo Liangdi2, Li Yueling1, Guo Haoxin3
1. Taishan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Taishan 529200; 2. Maoming Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Maoming 525000; 3. Zhanjiang Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Zhanjiang 524000; 4. Xinyi Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Xinyi 525300
Abstract In order to reduce the difficulty of typhoon and rainfall forecasting in Maoming City,Guangdong Province,this article integrates tropical cyclone paths and meteorological data from 1990 to 2019,and analyzes the evolution characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Maoming through mathematical statistics,linear regression,and other methods.It is found that there is a significant 68 year cycle fluctuation in the number of typhoons in Maoming.Using fuzzy mathematics and spatial area analysis,typhoons were classified,and mathematical support models for rainfall forecasting were constructed for each type of typhoon.Research has found that Zone Ⅱ typhoons account for the highest proportion,reaching 58.7%,while Zone Ⅳ typhoons only account for 2.0%.The rainfall forecast models for various typhoons reveal the relationship between typhoon intensity,landing location,and rainfall in Maoming,providing support for improving forecast accuracy and disaster prevention and reduction.
2024, Vol. 41 
