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| Interpretational and Utilization of Numerical Prediction Products in Areal Rainfall Prediction of the Three Gorges Areal Dam Area |
| Wu Yun |
| Meteorological information and technical support center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430074 |
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Abstract To match the operational forecast of different grass-roots stations, the forecast skill of heavy rainfall provided by JMH、GER and T213 numerical models are evaluated. And according to these results, we build the applied integrated model basing on the prediction of the products. The results are as follows: Relating to the forecast, the JMA model is the best and all the three perform well over the Jia Ling river and the Wu Jiang Basin.The forecasting value is smaller than the real value.To the correlation coefficient, the JMA model is the best and the T213 is the worst and all are different over each basin. Finally to exert the comprehensive effects, we establish the multiple linear regression equation and retain the forecasting model of areal rainfall, providing the theoretical foundation for rain forecast.
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Received: 14 January 2012
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2013, Vol. 30 
