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| Cause analysis of the extreme “dragonboat rain” rainstorm process in Shaoguan from June 5th9th,2020 |
| Guo Ziyou1, Pang Jingjing2, Zhang Shu1, Lin Jing3,4 |
1. Shaoguan Meteorological Bureau,Shaoguan 512026;
2. Ruyuan Yao Autonomous County Meteorological Bureau,Shaoguan 512700;
3. Key Laboratory of Lightning,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;
4. Heyuan Meteorological Bureau,Heyuan 517000 |
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Abstract This article uses conventional meteorological observation data,NCEP reanalysis data,dual polarization radar data and numerical prediction data to diagnose and analyze a historical record breaking extreme heavy rainfall process in Shaoguan,Guangdong Province from June 5 to September 2020.The results show that this rainstorm process occurred in the active monsoon period,and the cooperation of high and low level weather systems and the uplift of terrain provided favorable dynamic conditions for this rainfall.The southwest monsoon of the Bay of Bengal and the cross equatorial airflow provided abundant water vapor for this rainfall.The precipitation process this time is clearly phased,with tropical oceanic precipitation as the main cause.The increase and maintenance of vertical wind shear over the center of heavy precipitation are the main reasons for the continued extreme rainfall in the early morning of the 9th.The EC model has good reference value for rainfall area forecasting,while the Grapes GZ model has good accuracy for rainfall intensity forecasting.Among them,the Grapes-3 km short-term model has a good indicative effect on the heavy rainfall forecast in the early morning of the 9th.
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Received: 29 October 2024
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2025, Vol. 42 
