大方县乡镇气温分析及预报方法初探

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Abstract Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data from December 2015 to November 2022 from the Dafang National Basic Meteorological Observation Station and 35 township automatic meteorological observation stations,this study analyzed the characteristics of the changes in the maximum and minimum temperatures in Dafang County and their correlation with regional stations using mathematical statistics methods.The results show that the spatial distribution of the minimum temperature in Dafang County is basically similar throughout the four seasons.The distribution range of high and low values of the maximum temperature varies with the seasons,and there are relatively stable low value centers that are roughly the same in summer and autumn.Altitude is the main influencing factor of the maximum temperature.The accuracy of forecasting decreases as the correlation coefficient decreases,and the error range correspondingly increases.The methods of empirical forecasting and altitude correction forecasting have lower accuracy and more dispersed errors compared to the fitting formula forecasting method.

Key words： township forecast analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures relevance

Received: 28 August 2024

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	Articles by authors
	Zhang Xin
	Yuan Mi
	Luo Zhongxu
	Cai Jun
	Hu Yanyan
	Gun Yi

Cite this article:

Zhang Xin,Yuan Mi,Luo Zhongxu等. Preliminary exploration of temperature analysis and forecasting methods in towns of Dafang County[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2025, 42(5): 77-81.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2025/V42/I5/77

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