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| Nonparametric trend analysis and prediction research on hydrometeorological elements |
| Wang Zhen, Dai Jiayuan |
| Nanjing NARI Water Conservancy and Hydropower Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000 |
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Abstract The article employs non-parametric methods such as Moving Average Trend Analysis(MITA),Time Series Analysis(TSA),and change-point detection to investigate the trend analysis and prediction of hydro-meteorological elements.Taking the Xilin River Basin as an example,the long-term trends of precipitation,temperature,and other elements are analyzed.The results indicate that the annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature have significantly increased,while the number of precipitation days and snow cover days has significantly decreased,and the number of low and high temperature days has shown unstable changes.Non-parametric methods can effectively reflect the trends and stability of elements.The study provides a scientific basis for water resource management in the basin,environmental management in arid and semi-arid regions,and climate prediction.
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Received: 30 May 2025
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2025, Vol. 42 
