两种马尔可夫链在巴中地区降雨量预测的对比分析

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Abstract The article uses rainfall data from 1969 to 2023 in the Bazhong region to construct a rainfall prediction model based on weighted Markov chain,grey prediction,and fuzzy set.It predicts the annual and flood season rainfall from 2021 to 2023.The results show that the maximum probability effect is not prominent in Bazhong region when using weighted Markov chain model and grey Markov chain model to predict annual rainfall.The role of the highest probability in predicting rainfall during the flood season is more prominent in the southern region than in the northern region.In terms of annual rainfall prediction,Nanjiang,Bazhong,and Pingchang stations are more suitable for weighted Markov chain models,while Tongjiang station is more suitable for grey weighted Markov chain models.In terms of predicting rainfall during the flood season,Bazhong,Tongjiang,and Pingchang stations are more suitable for the grey weighted Markov chain model.Nanjiang is more suitable for weighted Markov chain models.The grey weighted Markov chain model has a better relative error in predicting extreme rainfall than the weighted Markov chain model.

Key words： Bazhong region Markov Chain fuzzy set rainfall

Received: 16 July 2024

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P426.6

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	Articles by authors
	Liu Rui
	Luo Xiaolin
	Qiu Kaipeng
	Li Jing

Cite this article:

Liu Rui,Luo Xiaolin,Qiu Kaipeng等. Comparative analysis of two Markov Chains for rainfall prediction in Bazhong region[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2026, 43(1): 39-43.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2026/V43/I1/39

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