铜鼓县强降水“1 h叫应”风险预警服务及阈值优化研究

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Abstract To address the high risk of disasters caused by shortduration heavy rainfall in the mountainous areas of Tonggu County,northwestern Jiangxi Province,this study analyzed meteorological observations,disaster records,and underlying surface data from 2005 to 2025,integrating Jiangxi Province's "631"alert mechanism with statistical analysis and case reviews to explore rainfall evolution patterns and evaluate alert effectiveness.Results indicate a significant increase in heavy rainfall frequency over the past two decades,with 85.6% occurring during the main flood season from April to August,exhibiting a spatial pattern of "higher in the west and north,lower in the east and south,"with Yongning,Sandu,and Paibu identified as core highfrequency zones.Rainstorms account for 84.83% of events,with singleday shortduration precipitation posing the highest disaster risk,while the 2024 "631"alert mechanism achieved an 85.19% answer rate and an 83.33% timeliness rate.Based on these findings,the nine townships were classified into three risk categories to establish differentiated 1hour,3hour,and 6hour alert thresholds,replacing the previous "onesizefitsall"approach,thereby providing a reference for optimizing nearrealtime disaster warnings in similar mountainous regions in southern China.

Key words： shortduration heavy rainfall 631 callresponse mechanism early warning thresholds precision disaster prevention Tonggu County

Received: 07 September 2026

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	Articles by authors
	Wang Yi
	Li Zhengchen
	Li Qike
	Song Kuan
	Zhang Wangpeng

Cite this article:

Wang Yi,Li Zhengchen,Li Qike等. Research on the "1hour callresponse" risk early warning service and threshold optimization for heavy precipitation in the mountainous areas of Tonggu County[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2026, 43(5): 70-73.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2026/V43/I5/70