用Cao方法探讨ENSO可预报性的年代际变化

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Abstract In order to research the relation between decadal variability of ENSO predictability and observation data, a nonlinear time series analysis method is used to probe the certainty extent in different decades. For the sake of the conundrum of measuring the certainty extent in time series, the estimation measure E₂ based on Cao method is analysed with some statistics. The results show that Cao method can be used to roughly estimate the extent of certainty and randomicity but it is not precise, because the robustness of Cao method is not strong.The purity of time series data is more important than their length.The decadal change of ENSO predictability is not simply caused by observation data and it is still necessary to thoroughly analyse the reasons.

Key words： predictability Cao method decadal variability

Received: 23 October 2012

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	Articles by authors
	Liu Yanhui
	Wang Fang
	Zhu Wenchao
	Huang Weixin

Cite this article:

Liu Yanhui,Wang Fang,Zhu Wenchao等. Research on decadal variability of ENSO predictability with Cao method[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2013, 30(2): 49-54.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2013/V30/I2/49

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