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| Study on classified potential forecasting method of strong convection in Jiangxi province |
| Xiao Yun1,2, Xiong Zhiwen2, Li Huanhuan2, Ma Zhongyuan1 |
1. Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanchang 330046;
2. Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,Xinyu 330096 |
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Abstract The spatial and temporal distribution and physical characteristics of three types of severe convective weather (hail,thunderstorm,heavy precipitation) from 2001 to 2010 were analyzed by using 89 national surface observation data and NCEP 1°×1° analysis data in Jiangxi province.The classification potential of hail,thunderstorm gale and heavy precipitation is established by logistic regression analysis.The effects of three potential probability prediction methods were tested through 32 hail cases,419 thunderstorm gales and 1 031 heavy precipitation cases from 2011 to 2016.Two hail weather processes in 2017 and 2018 were used to test the prediction equation of hail probability potential,and all of them passed the test.
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Received: 30 March 2020
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2020, Vol. 37 
