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| Application of Fisher and Bayesian methods in precipitation forecast |
| Yang Yang1, Jin Ruimeng2, Zhang Zongdi3, Ke Liping4, Wei Wei5 |
1. Zhijin Meteorological Bureau,Zhijin 552100;
2. Keyouzhongqi Meteorological Bureau,Keyouzhongqi 029400;
3. Jinsha Meteorological Bureau,Jinsha 551800;
4. Weining Meteorological Bureau,Weining 553100;
5. Qianxi Meteorological Bureau,Qianxi 551500 |
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Abstract Using observation data of 753 stations from 2000 to 2013,using Fisher's discriminant criterion and Bayes' discriminant criterion,and combining 74 characteristic features of atmospheric circulation from 1999 to 2012,four atmospheric circulation indexes with good correlation of precipitation were selected as the prediction factors of this trial.Three types of single-station precipitation prediction models were established.Three types of precipitation models were used to test the precipitation of three single stations from June to August in 2014.The results show that compared with the precipitation forecasting model based on the Fisher method,the Bayesian method-derived precipitation prediction model has a higher CSI score and accuracy rate,which has a stronger ability to predict precipitation at a single station,and has a better prediction effect with practical application value.
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Received: 27 March 2020
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2020, Vol. 37 
