Predictability analysis of regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin
Yang Xue1,2, Zhang Ming1, Zhang Yujie1,2 , Mao Dan1, Li Xin1
1. Suining Meteorological Bureau,Suining 629000; 2. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin,Chengdu 610072
Abstract：Based on EC numerical forecast products,high altitude observation and ground automatic weather station data,the predictability of a regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin on July 3,2018 was analyzed from the perspective of short-term weather forecast.The results show that the 24-hour precipitation forecast and upper air situation forecast of EC numerical model are obviously to the west and the mesoscale jet cannot be predicted.The 3-hour precipitation forecast and vertical velocity have obvious lag,and the intensity is significantly weaker.The humidity field and thermal conditions are highly predictable,which is conducive to the adjustment of early warning forecast to the east.
杨雪, 张明, 张渝杰, 毛单, 李信. 四川盆地中部区域性暴雨可预报性分析[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2022, 39(3): 47-49.
Yang Xue, Zhang Ming, Zhang Yujie , Mao Dan, Li Xin. Predictability analysis of regional rainstorm in central Sichuan basin. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2022, 39(3): 47-49.
2022, Vol. 39 
