Abstract：In order to do a good job in meteorological service of Huangshan region rainstorms in Meiyu period.This paper tests the overall performance of rainstorm forecast in the ultra-long Meiyu period in Huangshan region in 2020 was tested by using two global models EC-thin, CMA-GFS and one regional model (CMA-SH9) commonly used in local forecasting business.The results show that EC thin has a significantly stronger predictive ability for weather systems than CMA-GFS, but with the increase of forecast time, the forecast error will increase.CMA-SH9 has the best prediction effect on precipitation intensity, followed by EC thin, and CMA-GFS has the worst.The 24-hour forecasting ability of the three models is similar and can be referenced simultaneously.Extended effectiveness at any time, enhancing the reference value of CMA-SH9.The three models have relatively small predictions for precipitation precipitation areas, and the 24-hour time series can refer to both EC thin and CMA-SH9.The two models mainly adjust longitudinally with the extension of time series, with most of them leaning south or north.The three models have a certain correction ability for deviation from the prediction of precipitation areas near the time effect.
黄骏凯, 王婧, 吕涛, 沈绪杨. 基于多模式的2020年黄山地区超长梅雨期暴雨检验[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2024, 41(4): 45-49.
Huang Junkai, Wang Jing, Lv Tao, Shen Xuyang. Test of rainstorm in Huangshan area during the ultralong Meiyu period in 2020 based on multimodel. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2024, 41(4): 45-49.
2024, Vol. 41 
