| 
							
      					 | 
  					 
  					
    					 | 
   					 
   										
    					| Prediction for the precipitation using a weighted Markov model | 
  					 
  					  										
						| Zhang Xiang1, Chen Jun2, Lu Yu1, Pan Dong1, Li Jun1 | 
					 
															
						1.No.94995 Unit,Rugao 226500; 2.No.95631 Unit,Luzhou 646000 | 
					 
										
						 | 
					 
				 
				
				
					
						
							
								
									
										
											
                        					 
												
													
													    | 
													    	
														 | 
													 
																										
													
														
															
													
													    | 
													     		                            						                            																	    Abstract  The precipitation is periodic and unpredictable.In order to solve this problem,this paper puts forward a weighted Markov model.The monthly precipitation is predicted.The historical data are classified,and four-step state transition probability matrix is established.The forecast results conform well to the actual data.
																										     | 
														 
														
														
															| 
															    																	Received: 10 October 2017
																	    
															    															    															    															 | 
														 
														 														
															| 
																
															 | 
														 
																																									    																														 
															 | 
															
																
															 | 
													    	
															 | 
																
															
														 
														
													 
													
												 
												
												
													
																																												
															| [1] | 
															 
														     张沛超,胡炎,侯伟宏.IEC61850全数字化保护系统的分层马尔科夫模型[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(02):28-32.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																														
															| [2] | 
															 
														     孟苓辉,刘志刚,刁利军,等.基于Markov模型的高速列车牵引传动系统可靠性评估[J].铁道学报,2016,38(08):23-27.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																														
															| [3] | 
															 
														     高昆,刘莹,王丽静,等.基于高斯马尔科夫模型的高光谱异常目标检测算法研究[J].光谱学与光谱分析,2015,35(10):2846-2850.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																														
															| [4] | 
															 
														     刘玉磊,梁俊,肖楠,等.基于马尔科夫模型的认知无线电动态双门限能量检测策略[J].电子与信息学报,2016,38(10):2590-2597.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																														
															| [5] | 
															 
														     陈振颂,李延来.基于广义信度马尔科夫模型的顾客需求动态分析[J].计算机集成制造系统,2014,20(0 3):666-679.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																														
															| [6] | 
															 
														     李巍华,李静,张绍辉.连续隐半马尔科夫模型在轴承性能退化评估中的应用[J].振动工程学报,2014,27(04):613-620.
														     															
																															 
																														
																														 | 
																  
																																																								 
												 
												
											
											 
											
											 
										 
									 | 
								 
							 
						 | 
					 
				 
			
		 |