|
|
Effect analysis of 2 m temperature correction in Xinyu city by moving average method |
Li Jian1, Ma Zhongyuan2, Chen Baofa3, Li Xujie1, Zhou Fang4 |
1. Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,Xinyu 338000; 2. Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanchang 330046; 3. Jingdezhen Meteorological Bureau,Jingdezhen 333000; 4. Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanchang 330096 |
|
|
Abstract Based on the conventional observation data and the mesoscale numerical model data in South China,the systematic error of the model prediction under different correction periods is calculated by using the moving average method,and the temperature prediction error of national station in Xinyu is analyzed.The optimal correction period is determined and the correction effect is analyzed.These conclusions provide a basis for improving the accuracy of temperature prediction in Xinyu city.
|
Received: 31 March 2022
|
|
|
|
|
[1] |
赵桂洁,何娜,郝翠,等.北京地区温度要素模式预报和客观方法检验评估[J].气象科技,2021,49(6):869-877.
|
[2] |
夏凡,李昌义,刘诗军.基于垂直温度梯度对WRF-RUC模式山东2m温度订正研究[J].干旱气象,2018,36(1):64-68.
|
[3] |
牛金龙,张东方,姚鹏,等.多模式资料在成都地区的温度预报研究应用[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):67-70.
|
[4] |
薛谌彬,陈娴,张瑛,等.ECMWF高分辨率模式2m温度预报误差订正方法研究[J].气象,2019,45(6):831-842.
|
[5] |
王丹,黄少妮,高红燕,等.递减平均法对陕西SCMOC精细化温度预报的订正效果[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):575-583.
|
[6] |
卢冰,孙继松,仲跻芹,等.区域数值预报系统在北京地区的降水日变化预报偏差特征及成因分析[J].气象学报,2017,75(2):248-259.
|
[7] |
顾薇,赵长健,郭娇,等.基于多元线性回归的区域中尺度模式温度预报释用研究[J].智能城市,2019,5(20):75-76.
|
[8] |
李佰平,智协飞.ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究[J].气象,2012,38(8):897-902.
|
[9] |
马清,龚建东,李莉,等.超级集合预报的误差订正与集成研究[J].气象,2008,34(3):42-48.
|
[10] |
杨松,杞明辉,姚德宽.误差订正在预报集成中的应用研究[J].气象,2003,29(12):22-25.
|
[11] |
赵声蓉.多模式温度集成预报[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):52-58.
|
[12] |
吴启树,韩美,郭宏,等.MOS温度预报中最优训练期方案[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(4):426-434.
|
|
|
|