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| Future climate and annual assessment of Qilian Mountains based on CESM2WACCM |
| Fu Yongchao1, Ma Junqing1, Wang Liping2, Su Yilin1 |
1. Qilian County Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai,Haibei Prefecture 810400;
2. Dari County Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai,Guoluo Prefecture 814200 |
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Abstract The article studied the monthly temperature and precipitation simulation data of the CESM2-WACCM global climate model from 2020 to 2064,and calculated the temperature and precipitation annual indices,as well as the climate annual indices,of the Qilian Mountains for 45 years according to the GB/T 33670-2017 Assessment Method for Annual Climatic Status of the China Meteorological Administration.The article conducted a predictive study on the future climate annual changes in the Qilian Mountains.The results indicate that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountains from 2020 to 2064 are strongly influenced by emission scenarios.In the low emission scenario,the overall trend of temperature decline in the future is -0.18,and there is a possibility that the temperature trend will improve year by year due to the alternating effects of temperature changes.In low emission scenarios,precipitation fluctuates based on the annual average without any trend change.In the scenario of moderate emissions,precipitation tends to develop in a positive direction,and the probability of droughts and floods decreases.Taking into account the impact of temperature and precipitation on climate and annual scenery levels,the climate and annual scenery of the Qilian Mountains will be better from 2040 to 2049,poorer from 2020 to 2029,and normal in other years;The areas with improved climate and annual scenery in the Qilian Mountains may mainly be distributed in the eastern and western sections of the Qilian Mountains,while there is a greater possibility of deteriorating climate and annual scenery in the middle sections.
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Received: 23 December 2024
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2025, Vol. 42 
