基于多模式的2020年黄山地区超长梅雨期暴雨检验

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Abstract In order to do a good job in meteorological service of Huangshan region rainstorms in Meiyu period.This paper tests the overall performance of rainstorm forecast in the ultra-long Meiyu period in Huangshan region in 2020 was tested by using two global models EC-thin, CMA-GFS and one regional model (CMA-SH9) commonly used in local forecasting business.The results show that EC thin has a significantly stronger predictive ability for weather systems than CMA-GFS, but with the increase of forecast time, the forecast error will increase.CMA-SH9 has the best prediction effect on precipitation intensity, followed by EC thin, and CMA-GFS has the worst.The 24-hour forecasting ability of the three models is similar and can be referenced simultaneously.Extended effectiveness at any time, enhancing the reference value of CMA-SH9.The three models have relatively small predictions for precipitation precipitation areas, and the 24-hour time series can refer to both EC thin and CMA-SH9.The two models mainly adjust longitudinally with the extension of time series, with most of them leaning south or north.The three models have a certain correction ability for deviation from the prediction of precipitation areas near the time effect.

Key words： rainstorms in Meiyu period model verification forecast deviation

Received: 06 September 2023

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	Articles by authors
	Huang Junkai
	Wang Jing
	Lv Tao
	Shen Xuyang

Cite this article:

Huang Junkai,Wang Jing,Lv Tao等. Test of rainstorm in Huangshan area during the ultralong Meiyu period in 2020 based on multimodel[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2024, 41(4): 45-49.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2024/V41/I4/45

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