|
|
|
| Verification and evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for disastrous weather in the Mount Everest Nature Reserve |
| Gesang Zhuoma1,2, Chi Qu3, Yu La1, Zhuoma Ciren1, Zhang Jiayue1 |
1. Shigatse Meteorological Bureau,Shigatse 857000;
2. Shigatse National Climate Observatory,Shigatse 857000;
3. Tibet Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory,Lhasa,857000 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The article selected surface observational data from October 2019 to September 2020 in the Everest Nature Reserve to test and analyze precipitation products from three numerical forecasting models:ECMWF,GRAPES-GFS,and GRAPES-MESO.The results showed that the three models had significantly better predictive abilities for small-scale precipitation in the Mount Everest Nature Reserve than other levels,with ECMWF and GRAPES-MESO having better predictive abilities than GRAPES-GFS.For different start times,the numerical model forecasting ability from 20:00 is higher than that from 08:00,especially for larger precipitation forecasts.The TS scores of the three numerical models in the winter half year from January to April are much higher than those from October to December.For severe weather with blizzards of more than 10 mm,the ECMWF model has the highest score and the best forecasting ability,especially for precipitation of ≥50 mm,which has a much higher score than GRAPES.MESO.Overall,ECMWF precipitation products have high forecasting ability and reference value for catastrophic weather in the Mount Everest Nature Reserve.
|
|
Received: 02 September 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cite this article: |
|
Gesang Zhuoma,Chi Qu,Yu La等. Verification and evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for disastrous weather in the Mount Everest Nature Reserve[J]. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2026, 43(1): 98-100.
|
|
|
|
| URL: |
| http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/ OR http://www.qxswhy.com/EN/Y2026/V43/I1/98 |
| [1] |
陈姣荣,曹向林,肖平.岳阳市ECMWF数值模式降水预报检验与释用 [J].中低纬山地气象,2020,44(5):47-53.
|
| [2] |
王平,陈文林.ECMWF对广安地区晴雨预报性能检验及订正方法分析 [J].中低纬山地气象,2020,44(4):55-58.
|
| [3] |
孔德璇,王瑶,唐远志,等.黔西南州地区多模式集成方法的气温降水订正算法研究 [J].山地气象学报,2024,48(6):9-17.
|
| [4] |
格桑卓玛,(小)格桑卓玛,白玛曲吉,等.ECMWF-thin和GERMAN数值预报模式在珠峰自然保护区降水预报中的检验及误差分析 [J].农业灾害研究,2024,14(10):170-172.
|
| [5] |
普次仁,赤曲,边巴卓嘎,等.数值预报产品对西藏高原西南部降水的检验评估 [J].西藏科技,2024,46(8):37-42.
|
| [6] |
张成军,纪晓玲,马金仁,等.多种数值预报及其释用产品在宁夏天气预报业务中的检验评估 [J].干旱气象,2017,35(1):148-156.
|
| [7] |
罗布坚参,普布顿珠,除多,等.三种数值预报模式降水产品在西藏高原检验分析 [J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(2):24-28.
|
|
|
|
2026, Vol. 43 
