哈尔滨机场雷暴分析预报系统的研制及应用

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摘要利用现有气象设备，采用多种高级编程语言，研就开发了哈尔滨机场雷暴分析预报系统。该系统利用现有气象信息网资源，实现初始数据自动读取和综合分析处理；采用相似分析技术，实现雷暴天气形势的自动相似判别；利用天气学方法和数理统计方法，建立集成分析预报模式，实现0~24 h雷暴概率短期预报；基于天气雷达回波，采用交叉相关算法，实现0~1 h强对流临近预报预警。

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	黄红兵
	钟伟
	赵凯

关键词 ：雷暴, 预报系统, 相似判别, 短期预报, 临近预报

Abstract：The study of the harbin airport thunderstorm forecasting system made full use of the existing meteorological equipments and a variety of high-level programming languages, for example: it can reading and analyzing the initial data automatically by using the meteorological information network, discriminating the thunderstorm weather situation automatically by using the analog discriminatory analysis method, issuing the 0-24h thunderstorm probability prediction which weights the established weather forecast model by using the synoptic forecasting and mathematical statistics method, issuing the 0-1h thunderstorm nowcasting and warning by using the cross-correlation method based on weather radar echoes. The application shows that the system operation and nowcasing and warning are achieved the desired effect.

Key words： thunderstorm forecasting system analog discriminatory analysis short-range forecasting nowcasting

作者简介: 黄红兵(1965-),男,汉族,重庆市忠县人,成都气象学院,本科生,民航专家级高级工程师,主要从事强对流预报研究

引用本文:

黄红兵，钟伟，赵凯. 哈尔滨机场雷暴分析预报系统的研制及应用[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2013, 30(4): 84-87. HUANG Hongbing, ZHONG Wei, ZHAO Kai. Development and Application of the Thunderstorm Forecasting System at Harbin Airport. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2013, 30(4): 84-87.

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