Abstract：In order to enhance the ability to cope with extreme weather events,this article analyzes the process of the blizzard in the northern warm zone of northern Xinjiang that caused avalanches from January 8-12,2024.According to national station observation data,this snowfall is mainly divided into two stages;Based on ERA-5 reanalysis data,a diagnostic analysis was conducted on the circulation pattern,water vapor,and thermal conditions of snowfall.The results showed that the "two ridges and one trough" in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia at 500 hPa were stable,the polar vortex was deep,and the polar front area continued to split.The shortwave trough moved eastward,and the low-level continued convergence shear was favorable for the circulation pattern;The coupling of high and low altitude jet streams is a favorable condition for dynamic uplift.Water vapor transport below 400 hPa forms water vapor convergence in northern Xinjiang.The snowfall is positively correlated with the intensity,thickness,and duration of water vapor transport and convergence,especially the thickness of water vapor convergence.If there is water vapor divergence,snowfall will be suppressed.In the northern part of northern Xinjiang,there is strong transport of warm advection in the lower atmosphere.When weak cold advection infiltrates into the lower troposphere to from a temperature contrast,there is a strong snowfall and a positive correlation.
2026, Vol. 43 
