ERA5降水再分析数据在长江流域的适用性评估

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摘要为了提高长江流域气象数据的再分析能力,文章基于长江流域724个自动气象站19812020年日降水量观测数据,分析了ERA5降水再分析数据产品的多时间尺度变化,并运用定量、分类统计指标对ERA5降水再分析数据产品在长江流域的适用性进行了评估。结果表明:ERA5降水再分析数据产品整体质量较好,能较好地表现长江流域降水的年、月和季节变化趋势,但都表现出高估现象;春、夏季产品精度不如秋、冬季节;产品精度自西向东逐渐增大,误差也表现为自西向东逐渐增大;产品对全流域有无降水事件的刻画能力较强,但会随降水量级的增加而降低,误报率和公平技巧评分与之相反,但高估现象仍然存在。因此,需要结合地域和应用特点,合理选择适合的再分析产品。

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	匡晓为
	闫荞荞
	刘莹
	刘园园

关键词 ： ERA5数据, 降水, 长江流域, 时间变化, 精度评估

Abstract：In order to improve the reanalysis capability of meteorological data in the Yangtze River Basin,this article analyzes the multi time scale changes of ERA5 precipitation reanalysis data products based on daily precipitation observation data from 724 automatic weather stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1981 to 2020,and evaluates the applicability of ERA5 precipitation reanalysis data products in the Yangtze River Basin using quantitative and categorical statistical indicators.The results indicate that the overall quality of ERA5 precipitation reanalysis data products is good,which can well reflect the annual,monthly,and seasonal trends of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin,but all show overestimation.The accuracy of products in spring and summer is not as good as in autumn and winter seasons.The product accuracy gradually increases from west to east,and the error also shows a gradual increase from west to east.The product has a strong ability to characterize whether there are precipitation events in the entire basin,but it will decreases with the increase of precipitation level.The false positive rate and fair skill score are the opposite,but overestimation still exists.Therefore,it is necessary to select suitable reanalysis products based on regional and application characteristics.

Key words： ERA5 data precipitation Yangtze River Basin time variation accuracy evaluation

收稿日期: 2024-02-27

ZTFLH:

P468

基金资助:长江流域气象开放基金(CJLY2022Y08)资助。

作者简介: 匡晓为(1989),女,硕士,工程师。主要从事气象数据分析工作。

引用本文:

匡晓为, 闫荞荞, 刘莹, 刘园园. ERA5降水再分析数据在长江流域的适用性评估[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2024, 41(5): 19-23. Kuang Xiaowei, Yan Qiaoqiao, Liu Ying, Liu Yuanyuan. Applicability evaluation of ERA5 precipitation reanalysis data in the Yangtze River Basin. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2024, 41(5): 19-23.

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http://www.qxswhy.com/CN/ 或 http://www.qxswhy.com/CN/Y2024/V41/I5/19

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