高空槽与台风残余水汽耦合作用机制的定量分析与预报识别方法构建——以2025年长白县大雨过程为例

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摘要文章以2025年8月长白县一次大雨过程为例,结合自动站降水资料、再分析资料、探空与雷达产品,对高空槽与台风残余水汽共同作用下的降水形成条件进行诊断。结果表明:此次过程发生在高空槽东移南压与台风残余暖湿气流北送相互配合的背景下,长白县处于槽前抬升区与低层水汽辐合区的重叠地带;850 hPa低空急流持续输送暖湿空气,700 hPa辐合与上升运动相互对应,500 hPa正涡度平流为降水维持提供了有利动力条件;山区地形对水汽抬升和回波滞留有明显放大作用,是雨带稳定少动的重要原因。在个例诊断基础上,选取850 hPa水汽通量、700 hPa水汽通量散度、700 hPa垂直速度、整层可降水量和CAPE等因子,提出耦合型降水识别指标及分级判识思路,为类似天气过程的业务预报提供参考。

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	岳宁

关键词 ：高空槽, 台风残余水汽, 耦合机制, 定量诊断, 预报识别

Abstract：Based on a heavy rainfall event in Changbai County in August 2025,this study utilizes automatic weather station data,reanalysis datasets,radiosonde observations,and radar products to diagnose the formation conditions of precipitation driven by the synergistic effects of an upperlevel trough and typhoon remnant moisture.The results indicate that the event occurred under the combined influence of the eastward and southward movement of the upperlevel trough and the northward transport of warm,moist air from typhoon remnants,with Changbai County situated in the overlapping region of pretrough ascent and lowlevel moisture convergence.Specifically,the sustained transport of warm and moist air by the 850 hPa lowlevel jet,the correspondence between 700 hPa convergence and upward motion,and the 500 hPa positive vorticity advection collectively provided favorable dynamic conditions for precipitation maintenance,while mountainous terrain significantly amplified moisture lifting and radar echo stagnation,serving as a crucial factor for the stationary rainband.Building upon this case diagnosis,the study proposes a coupled precipitation identification index and a hierarchical recognition framework based on key factors,including 850 hPa moisture flux,700 hPa moisture flux divergence,700 hPa vertical velocity,total precipitable water,and CAPE to provide operational forecasting references for similar weather processes.

Key words： upperlevel trough typhoon remnant moisture coupling mechanism quantitative diagnosis forecast identification

收稿日期: 2025-11-28

ZTFLH:

P458

基金资助:吉林省白山市气象局技术发展专项课题“虎眼万年青生长气象指标及气候品质认证研究”(x0007)资助。

作者简介: 岳宁(2001),女,大学,助理工程师。主要从事综合气象观测工作。

引用本文:

岳宁. 高空槽与台风残余水汽耦合作用机制的定量分析与预报识别方法构建——以2025年长白县大雨过程为例[J]. 气象水文海洋仪器, 2026, 43(5): 90-93. Yue Ning. Quantitative analysis of the coupling mechanism between upperlevel troughs and typhoon residual moisture and construction of forecast identification methods:a case study of the heavy rainfall event in Changbai County in 2025. Meteorological Hydrological and Marine Instrument, 2026, 43(5): 90-93.

链接本文:

http://www.qxswhy.com/CN/ 或 http://www.qxswhy.com/CN/Y2026/V43/I5/90

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